Could the masismo confront successfully another economic situation?

Carlos Tornado writes in Pagina Siete:

Another economic situation?

Carlos ToranzoWhen Evo Morales rose to power, many analysts said the mismanagement of the economy could get him out of his presidential chair, but nine years passed and the President is firmly seated in power. What happens is that they failed to see that the world economy, through the impetus of China and some countries in Asia, generated the boom in commodity prices, such a big boom that surely would not have been understood by Prebisch, who during years claimed that the terms of trade were always favorable to industrial products and unfavorable for raw materials.

But in the last decade all that changed and those exporting oil, gas, minerals and soybeans, were favored by higher prices of these commodities. In the past the “neoliberal” ruled when the price of a barrel of oil was around $15, however, Evo Morales touched govern when oil per barrel rose to $140 and then stabilized at $100.

Bolivia, never before had a boom in commodity prices so high, not even during Banzer was with this dimension of plenty for years. It is true that not all countries had economic policies that divert them from inflation and fiscal deficits, for example, Venezuela and Argentina, who benefited from the boom, now have a difficult situation, Venezuela is almost drowned and Argentina is wheezes . In Bolivia the government boasts of good economic policies, but in reality, is the boom, -so big- as the fundamental element of the economic situation experienced in all these years, or to moderate the claim, we can say that there was a combination of good luck and good policies.

But the first, good luck, which had more impact, because although current expenditure grew stampede, that is not too noticed, on the negative effects generated due to the size of the boom, an economic situation that people attributed to Evo Morales, its nationalization. Popular sectors understand that Evo is the maker of all this, so they do not mind the boom in international prices, this is a tale of economists, while the people say that everything brought Morales.

In such buoyant situation, not to let it go, the Santa Cruz businessmen decided to side with the government, their autonomic stench left behind, preferring to make money. On the other hand, now more than ever grew bourgeoisies of cholas and cunumis, who manage almost all the channels of commerce, legal and illegal, the movement of goods. In these 10 years, who won as never are entrepreneurs, the losers are the employees, the peasants. To spend so much money expenditure control laws were removed, bids were eliminated, which, no doubt, led to the germination of fractions of bureaucratic bourgeoisie, those that are the basis of a capitalism-that clique that what wanted to build the revolutionary MNR, but failed because it was in his favor tremendous boom experienced in these 10 years.

Did he finish the dream? We do not know, nor hydrocarbons specialists know how the prices of oil and gas move, either there are too certainty about the evolution of mineral prices. The only certainty is that the price of a barrel of oil is close to $55 [12/24/2014], is also a certainty that America produces unconventional oil and is an evidence of a slowdown, -no dramatically the growth of China and some countries of Asia. On the other hand, Europe does not have much muscle to generate large global growth, therefore, to provide on this Christmas Eve, we must conclude that the only scenario that comes forward is not only the continuity of jauja and boom, it also a stage of decline of that boom, this is not good news at Christmas, but realistically, better prepared for both scenarios. And who said that given the economy dramatically, to think how they will hold when the running costs went through the roof. But, tranquility, tranquility [as we] “are shielded”.

Carlos Toranzo is an economist.

In sum, Bolivian people are mislead and current ochlocracy perpetuates in their lies and incompetence… we are not prepared for reality!


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