Armando Mariaca writes in El Diario:
There is concern over serious problems that can affect the country
Gone are the days of boom times overspending because it had “silver”; Time passed abuses that were committed at the expense of the government relied on his followers and more on who had the mission to take care of the trust and the money deposited in them with a view to building works or, at least, improve existing ones. Finally, the last eight or ten years of financial boom shows the urgency of austerity policies, a drive with a lot of honesty and responsibility. The government must be aware of the past and, above all, of what might happen if the issues take less unwanted and unexpected dimensions.
To believe that only with the international reserves, achieved due to the high prices of oil, gas, minerals and raw materials export, would guarantee peace, it is not right because we do not increase production and tapped times of great price boom to produce more, export more and achieve more revenues; believe in repeating what has been achieved and that is replicated only by the goodwill that we have to do waiting for events that do not happen, it is utopian. What remains of that past experiences are not to repeat the errors, to correct the wrong done to act with great decency and honesty with the availability of the country; is therefore much to do and not to fall asleep again, on the laurels of success achieved not by the government but by the rising of the international prices.
It is said that we are “ready” to confront the difficulties; affirms at government level, that growth will be higher, our economy is strong, which made it so far strengthens the position of “bonanza enjoyed by the people”; In short, it says much that it is hard to know how much you can believe about booms do not always exist and, on the contrary, carry a burden that is difficult to overcome because difficulties not gotten in eight or ten years will present new and from the Next year will be faced with realism, patience, discipline, consistency, efficiency and effectiveness not only of the government but of the entire national community.
But, with the niceties that proclaims a reality emerges clearly: they have economic and financial difficulties from next year by the almost certain devaluation of our currency, the also almost certain elimination of subsidies, both events would determine inflation; Of course, the decline in revenues because of low prices and also because there would be much increased exports; It would lack of articles for use and consumption; wages and salaries, increments suffering, have less purchasing power; food production will have larger increases and will continue to import from neighboring countries; job offers decrease because the investment required by the contraction of them around the world will not occur. This whole set of difficulties involve the presence of social conflicts involving those who want to increase wages and salaries, payment of extraordinary bonuses require Relying on custom created for several years; there will be a sprout of demonstrations and protests, strikes will arise because the demands are more radical; on the other hand, smuggling will continue to grow and increase corruption because those accustomed to “win big” may not restrict their income. The drug will increase and the immediate consequence will be the presence of more consumers and pressure from neighboring countries that require radical measures against drug trafficking.
This panorama can be compounded with more contracting of external debt (like the China would case, will be be assured if a loan of 7 billion US dollars), with domestic debt could reach or exceed 60% of GDP. These willy-nilly make us more dependent on debt, the more they mortgaged, the most unable to overcome poverty. How can the people stand before the avalanche of problems that could arise? The situation may be bearable if the government adopts preventive measures to social demands; but will they have the capacity for negotiation and dialogue to contain all this? Can he stop the demands of their own supporters?
Will he be ready to act with great austerity in spending drastically reducing them, avoiding the monumental works, unnecessary work plans that have no rationale as in the case of a “nuclear plant”?
If the government considers a part of the population as “imperialist, capitalist, neoliberal, unpatriotic” you can not see reality and less change their policies “laissez-faire, laissez-paser” can not possibly overcome good percentage of problems. The most serious, if you continue with the belief that the country is owned “ad-aeternum” and no planning or organization nor order nor sense of country and dedication to service, the difficulties could acquire very dangerous dimensions. It is necessary, therefore, that the regime thinks that we are all children of the same country and the successes achieved as a good administrator who should be for the same people who, for sure, will respond to the challenges that are tough.