Raúl Peñaranda, Página Siete:
Reasons for the victory of MAS
One of the reasons for the high MAS vote in last Sunday’s elections is that, in addition to support for candidate Luis Arce, there was a “punishment vote” against the transitional government. Hundreds of thousands of people who had supported Evo Morales’s party in the past and who in 2019 were disappointed and stopped doing so, preferred to vote again for that political force after seeing what was the “alternative” that Jeanine Añez and her buddies gave away.
After years of promises from the democratic forces that after the Morales government there would come a stage of reconciliation, efficiency and democracy, the opposite happened. The aggressive rhetoric (“narcotirano”, “terrorists”, “seditious”, “Castro-Chavistas”, “we will hunt them like animals”), corruption, inefficiency, the incredible turnover of high officials, judicial persecution, in short, the complete ineptitude to govern, gave a very clear message to those disillusioned MAS voters: if that was the promised change, those people had better go back to betting on the option in which they felt most comfortable.
It was incredible to me that the authorities really thought they were going to win votes by hurling insults and threats and calling Morales sympathizers “narcomasistas”. This was totally counterproductive. That shortsightedness shows why they haven’t had major political successes for years.
Things turned out in such a sad way for those of us who resisted Morales that the first government to succeed him in 14 years proved to be the worst since the recovery of democracy. Except for some good ministers, such as Iván Arias, Karen Longaric, Óscar Ortiz and some others, in general the outlook was disastrous. Worst bad luck, difficult.
The person responsible for these problems is the President, obviously, due to the position she held, but also because she made the de facto president Arturo Murillo, a person without lights, accused of corruption and prone to threatening. To all of this we owe that the MAS obtained more votes in 2020 than in 2019.
But the “punishment vote” is obviously not the only reason that explains the victory of the MAS. There are many others, which various analysts have already lucidly mentioned. I do not want to refer to them so as not to insist on the same. But one that I see that has not been mentioned is that the candidates opposed to the MAS, in this and previous elections, have neither been able nor willing to approach the popular and indigenous segments of the country. It was obvious that Creemos would not do it, locked up as it is in the middle sectors of Santa Cruz, but that Comunidad Ciudadana would not have tried, it is surprising. He didn’t even do it to cover it up. After 14 years of Morales, he could at least have made a gigantography showing photos of candidates who were not white, wealthy professionals. The truth is that Carlos Mesa made no effort to cross the street from his house to meet other types of people. If we speak of a closed circle, we must speak of a Citizen Community.
That candidacy made the mistake of previous anti-MAS nominations since 2005, believing that the vote of the middle class is enough to win an election. Well it is not. This was again shown to be a chimera, this time more dramatically because there were hopes, even unfounded, of regime change.
Finally, I disagree with those who point out that Luis Arce’s victory came “despite” Morales. The former president continues to be the engine of his party, its main leader and its future. Morales interfered in the campaign for months, he was not absent. This shows that those who voted for Arce did, too, for Morales. As some American newspaper has said, the last elections were also a referendum on the cocalero leader. And he won it widely. His adherents did not care about his authoritarianism, the accusations of rape against him, the waste of his government or the accusations of corruption.
Raúl Peñaranda U. is a journalist.
Razones de la victoria del MAS
Una de las razones que explican la alta votación del MAS en las elecciones del domingo pasado es que se produjo, además del apoyo al candidato Luis Arce, un “voto castigo” contra el gobierno de transición. Cientos de miles de personas que habían apoyado en el pasado al partido de Evo Morales y que en 2019 estaban desilusionados y dejaron de hacerlo, prefirieron volver a votar por esa fuerza política después de ver cuál era la “alternativa” que les regalaron Jeanine Añez y sus compinches.
Tras años de promesas de las fuerzas democráticas en sentido de que después del gobierno de Morales vendría una etapa de reconciliación, eficiencia y democracia, resulta que ocurrió lo contrario. La retórica agresiva (“narcotirano”, “terroristas”, “sediciosos”, “castro-chavistas”, “los cazaremos como animales”), la corrupción, la ineficiencia, la rotación increíble de altos cargos, la persecución judicial, en fin, la ineptitud completa para gobernar, dieron un mensaje muy claro a esos votantes desilusionados del MAS: si ese era el cambio prometido, más les valía a esas personas volver a apostar por la opción en la que sentían más cómodos.
Para mí era increíble que las autoridades realmente pensaran que iban a ganar votos a punta de lanzar insultos y amenazas y llamar “narcomasistas” a los simpatizantes de Morales. Ello fue totalmente contraproducente. Esa cortedad de vista demuestra por qué no han tenido mayores éxitos políticos durante años.
Las cosas se produjeron de tal triste manera para quienes resistíamos a Morales que el primer gobierno en sucederlo en 14 años demostró ser el peor desde la recuperación de la democracia. Excepto algunos buenos ministros, como Iván Arias, Karen Longaric, Óscar Ortiz y algún otro, en general el panorama era desastroso. Peor mala suerte, difícil.
La responsable de esos problemas es la Presidenta, obviamente, por el cargo que desempeñó, pero también por haber hecho que el mandatario de facto fuera Arturo Murillo, una persona sin luces, acusado de corrupción y proclive a lanzar amenazas. A todo ello le debemos que el MAS haya obtenido más votos en 2020 que en 2019.
Pero el “voto castigo”, obviamente no es la única razón que explica la victoria del MAS. Hay muchas otras, que diversos analistas ya han mencionado lúcidamente. No quiero referirme a ellas para no insistir sobre lo mismo. Pero una que veo que no se ha mencionado es que los candidatos contrarios al MAS, en ésta y en elecciones anteriores, no han ni podido ni querido acercarse a los segmentos populares e indígenas del país. Era obvio que Creemos no lo haría, encerrado como está en los sectores medios de Santa Cruz, pero que Comunidad Ciudadana no lo hubiera intentado, es sorprendente. Ni siquiera lo hizo para disimular. Después de 14 años de Morales por lo menos podría haber realizado una gigantografía mostrando fotos de candidatos que no fueran profesionales blancos de clase acomodada. La verdad es que Carlos Mesa no hizo ningún esfuerzo por cruzar la calle de su casa para encontrarse con otro tipo de gente. Si hablamos de círculo cerrado, debe hablarse de Comunidad Ciudadana.
Esa candidatura cometió el error de las anteriores postulaciones contrarias al MAS desde 2005, creer que el voto de la clase media es suficiente para ganar una elección. Pues no lo es. Se volvió a demostrar que ello es una quimera, esta vez de manera más dramática porque había esperanzas, aun infundadas, de un cambio de régimen.
Finalmente, yo disiento de quienes señalan que la victoria de Luis Arce se dio “pese” a Morales. El expresidente sigue siendo el motor de su partido, su líder principal y su futuro. Morales interfirió en la campaña durante meses, no estuvo ausente. Eso demuestra que quienes votaron por Arce lo hicieron, también, por Morales. Como lo ha dicho algún diario estadounidense, las elecciones pasadas fueron a la vez un referéndum sobre el líder cocalero. Y lo ganó ampliamente. A sus adherentes no les importó su autoritarismo, las acusaciones de estupro que pesan contra él, el despilfarro de su gobierno ni las acusaciones de corrupción.
Raúl Peñaranda U. es periodista.
Bolivian Thoughts 
And the scaremongering by the opposition was stupid, especially the claim that MAS would turn Bolivia into a second Venezuela.
First, why would they do that if they haven’t done it previously? Voters are really smarter than that.
Second, if you tell Bolivians that their country will become Venezuela, many people are excited: “Oh, so we will have a sea after all?”