Carla Paz Vargas reports for El Deber:
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the World Bank differ in their forecasts on economic growth of Bolivia for this year. Thus, while the first sets a rate of 5.2 per cent, close to the estimates of the Government (5,52%), the second provides for only 4.1%. [the chart above reads 4.3%]
According to the report of ECLAC, the impact of the current financial crisis in Europe, as well as the slowdown in China and positive but low expansion of the USA, will be differentiated into countries, according to the relative importance of the destination of its exports and its export structure markets.
However, for the ECLAC the gross domestic product (GDP) close in 2012 to 5.2%, better than in 2011, when it closed at 5.1%.
This forecast is approaching in a meaningful way from the goal of growth that the Government was proposed for 2012 5,52%.
The authorities rely on that gas prices will remain high and that humming strategic areas, such as construction, thanks to the increase in investment or public spending.
“Please note the possibility of a more adverse external scenario for 2012-2013. If that were to happen, this may mean an interruption of financial flows to the region and the suspension of bank credit lines abroad, with consequences of falls in stock markets and depreciation of the currencies, in addition to a reduction of exports and investment”, says the document macroeconomic report of Latin America and the Caribbean, June 2012, presented yesterday [June 14, 2012] by the Agency.
The report indicates that the region in general has enough fiscal space, although in most countries it is less than the existing before the crisis of 2008-2009, for a counter-cyclical policy containing the immediate effects of the crisis on their economies.
The positive aspects, the ECLAC highlights that the economies specializing in the export of hydrocarbons (Bolivia) would increase its surplus in current account, thanks to the high prices of oil and its derivatives.
While the World Bank projected a critical situation. “Developing countries must prepare for an extended period of economic instability and return to pay attention to development of medium-term strategies, as they prepare for hard times,” warned in the latest edition of the report World Economic Prospects.
In February, the Ministry of economy and public finance of Bolivia, reported that the rate of growth is due to the new economic model social community production with participation of the State.
So… please reflect and make your conclusions…