It’s the economy, it’s not politics – Es la economía, no es la política

Bolivia is going through moments of uncertainty due to the economic situation. The slow and forceful fall of the Net International Reserves (NIR), together with the lack of transparency in the information provided by the Government, left a climate of fear and doubts among the citizens, in addition to affecting imports and the thousands of Bolivians who depend on the remittances that arrive from abroad and those that they can no longer have in dollars.

While that happens in the real economy of families and companies, there is a political dispute that tries to capture the attention. It is about the advanced electoral competition between Luis Arce (president) and Evo Morales (head of the MAS). Due to this, the Government did not obtain the approval of laws that are its lifeline at this time: the gold law and laws to approve international credits, because the Evista wing no longer adds its votes to those of the pro-government block related to Luis Arce. What’s more, the masista hard wing has come to put conditions on the president to take a step towards party unity; public requests are known, it will be necessary to ask what are the ones that are raised under the table.

What is in dispute at this moment does not seem to be the well-being of all Bolivians, but whether the candidate of the Movimiento Al Socialismo will be Evo Morales or Luis Arce Catacora. That is what the effort of this moment is reduced to and the citizens are in the middle, like collateral damage.

This situation leaves a political cost for the president, who for years has worked on his image as an economic guru. Perhaps that is why he has not appeared to speak to Bolivians about this complex moment. He takes care of his image, but leaves the population in uncertainty: he prioritizes politics and leaves the economy aside. Meanwhile, the officials who manage the national finances continue to paint an ideal reality that is not reflected in what happens in the pockets of ordinary Bolivians, thus increasing mistrust.

As for the planned actions: greater indebtedness and the law that would allow it to monetize gold from net international reserves, they do not seem to be fundamental solutions, but rather patches that kick the fundamental problem forward.

The country continues to be indebted, while the value of sovereign bonds collapses due to the fall in international reserves. In addition, the monetization of gold, although it alleviates the current situation, only prolongs the agony of the NIR, which now supports its value precisely in the ingots of this metal that are in the vaults of the Central Bank of Bolivia.

As long as the government continues to prioritize politics, it will not take any substantive measures to resolve the current economic mess.

Where should it start? Two paths seem to be urgent: recognize the current situation as a problem to be solved, instead of continuing to deny it and blame economists and social networks, because no one believes it anymore.

The second path is to reduce the current excessive spending, both in a bulging bureaucracy that only benefits militants but leaves nothing to the country, as well as in loss-making state companies and hydrocarbon imports, which must go through several actions, from the control of entry of illegal vehicles, until investigating and punishing acts of corruption, if the complaints are confirmed.

In other words, the strategy of selling an image of an armored economy no longer works. Seriousness is needed in the analysis and solution of problems.

If things continue like this, whoever wins the electoral struggle will be worthless. If the government isn’t trustworthy now, it won’t be trustworthy when the national elections come around.