Will MAS be divided? | ¿Se dividirá el MAS?

Renzo Abruzzese, El Deber:

For many, the dispute between the two factions of MAS is more apparent than real, although there is no doubt that the contradictions and confrontations between both factions have progressed and have reached levels that would clearly establish that, between Evo Morales and Luis Arce Catacora, there are very few divergent points and many identical ambitions. Ultimately, although they have become opposing candidates, this does not mean that the political movement that shelters them is effectively divided. I doubt that such division exists. My hypothesis is based on the idea that what unites the Movement for Socialism is a sense of race rather than a formalized political doctrine as ideology. In other words, the only “ideology” that effectively gives them a particular identity and a sense of unity is the racial sentiment in which they participate. Morales incorporated this racial sentiment throughout the structure of state power, racializing politics, the political, and the political institutions of modern democracy.

It is possible, therefore, that the discrepancies between Evo Morales and Arce Catacora become increasingly intense and reach radical levels, to the point where the only way to resolve the internal conflict is for one of them to step aside or disappear from the party spectrum. This, I believe, will surely happen as part of any solution to the internal problem they face.

However, it does not mean that the membership aligned with the loser will disappear. I believe that, due to the particular characteristics of this political organization, the followers of the eventual loser will not cease to be ‘masistas,’ and consequently, the division of the leadership will not be fully reflected in the social bases of MAS.

The one who loses the current struggle would not only lose the possibility of being president but also the benefits and pleasures that Power grants and which they have enjoyed. Moreover, they understand that they would be left to their own devices, which, as we know, is the worst thing that can happen to a politician obsessed with Power, its privileges, and its past.

Based on these hypotheses, I have a hunch that ultimately what the ‘masistas’ will debate is the continuity of the movement beyond the continuity of its current leaders. They will do this because it is the only way for the once powerful MAS to project itself as a political option in the immediate future. Additionally, there is something very subjective yet glaringly visible: the enjoyment of Power has become part of the preferences of many sectors that were excluded from these pleasant privileges for centuries. In fact, there are quite a few ‘masistas’ who secretly harbor the hope of replacing Evo, Luis, or anyone who stands in the way of their political destiny.

Whichever path the immediate future of MAS takes, the political system that we are struggling to rebuild will have a tough interlocutor for a long time: the Movement for Socialism

Petty politics

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