As social turmoil fades away in Bolivia, and this week most of the Christian population will immerse in prayers until this Eastern. The following reactions over the accord government-unions are worth taking into account:
COB union leader (Montes) will more likely be reelected; there are some analysts that speculate on last 10 violent days as an “agreed” move/support from the government to him. Montes and the government have a track record of supporting themselves. Worth noting that in previous governments, the COB remained independent.
Former COB leader (Solares), now representing the mining sector does not agree with this accord. Regrettably, as this person is very conflicting and violent, we may hear from him, sooner than later.
The Teacher’s association does accept to demobilize but reject the increase; they consider it an insult (Vilma Plata). Jose Luis Alvarez, La Paz Teacher’s leader, said that they will demand same salaries for urban and rural sectors; considers a victory against the government although is not what they expected.
The retired association said it will continue the pressure; for next week, they plan to march from the road Oruro-La Paz, as a way to demonstrate their rejection of the 1% increase over their pension. They claim to have the same needs as the rest of the Bolivian society.
Recent survey in La Paz, showed a 63.3% figure that citizens would not support current president’s reelection. In fact it would be his 3rd term. Constitution bans that, the government’s excuse is that the 1st term was under the Republic and now is the 1st term as a State (estado plurinacional). More on this will develop as election time will come.
The construction sector in Bolivia may suffer shortage of cement. A judge (Betty Nogales) has instructed that the bank accounts of SOBOCE be frozen; not sol long ago their shares in FANCESA were expropriated. The judge determined to accept Sucre’s request of alleged 100 million dollars damage on that municipality. Veronica Berrios (Mayor) was questioned by most of the City Council and apparently Berrios had withdrawn that accusation. After that ruling, Judge Nogales was ceased by the Consejo de Judicatura (body that regulates the judicial sector). As all these clearly shows how mixed up all these actions against major shareholder who also leads a portion of the opposition (Samuel Doria Medina), the bottom line is: Bolivia will go back to long lines to purchase cement. Speculation will flourish and the most active industry in urban Bolivia will be hampered; an industry that provides income to a large portion of the informal economy.
Regarding the “terrorism” trial (Rozsa et al); Prosecutor Marcelo Soza when instructed by the Judge Rolando Sarmiento, asked to present the evidence at the trial in Cochabamba. Evidence such as explosives was destroyed and other evidence (emails) were obtained illegally. Defense lawyers are starting
to prepare the dismissal of the case. A more detailed information follows on
this link:
A macro view of Latin America’s growth, despite initial projections of this decade being the one, institutions like the IMF and World Bank have started to warn this region to start saving as worldwide economy is shrinking (China, for the next five years is adjusting their 10% annual growth to 7%), so less of our natural resources will be demanded. Interest rates in the USA will more likely increase and again be an attraction to Latin American savings. Bolivia’s government claim on billions of dollars in reserves could easily fade out to social demands; lack of diversification on markets (government control over agricultural exports had reduced current production); lack of exploration of natural gas and lack of expansion of pipelines will certainly affect us more. If Latin America will not have “its decade of growth,” Bolivia will certainly be less likely to turn into the Switzerland that this government claimed not so long ago. This is the time to save for the “dry season,” populist bonuses; satellites that will be obsolete in the medium run should certainly not be priorities. Now, how to make understand current government’s electoral force is the dam challenge.
Two good analysis on past events are the following links, sorry for not including translation.
http://www.hoybolivia.com/Blog.php?IdBlog=36822&tit=lecciones_de_abril
http://www.hoybolivia.com/Blog.php?IdBlog=36825&tit=reculazo_de_la_cob
All that happened the last 10 days in Bolivia should make us reflect over the need to have: a government willing to rule for all Bolivian society; opposition and unions to seek proactive and constructive roles; stop crime; food security; clear rules on ownership titling and tackling cocaine traffic should be our priorities.
Bolivian Thoughts | Pensamientos Bolivianos (Bilingual/Bilingüe) 