JC Veliz reports for Pagina Siete:
52% of respondents believe that, regardless of the candidate for which they will vote, Evo Morales will win the elections. 19% say that there will be clean elections.
The presidential elections in October will not be clean, that is the perception of 72% of the respondents by Markets and Samples.
The results of this statistical exercise take place in the midst of the loss of confidence in the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), due to the politicization of that State body.
72% of the respondents indicated that in the presidential elections in October there will be fraud while 19% think that the general elections will not be contaminated.
The expert in international law and one of the architects of the creation of the former National Electoral Court, Daniel Zovatto, recently told Página Siete that “the Supreme Electoral Tribunal must be shielded and protected so that it can carry out its work in the most impartial manner. possible, to guarantee, that whoever wins the electoral process has the legitimacy of origin and that this legitimacy is unquestionable.”
The TSE faces a crisis of legitimacy and credibility after a process of deinstitutionalization as a consequence of MAS’s political interference.
One of its actions in favor of the government party was the empowerment of President Evo Morales as a candidate for a third continuous re-election despite the fact that the Constitution establishes only one continuous re-election and the results of the referendum on February 21, 2016, at that time. The majority of the electorate rejected the re-election of the ruling party binomial for the period 2020-2025.
Evo will win
Another question Markets and Samples asked was who believes that they will win the next presidential election regardless of voting for a favorite candidate.
52% believe that Evo Morales will win the elections despite the fact that the polls conducted by this company indicate that there may be a second round in which Carlos Mesa could win.
The President already anticipated his desire to win with more than 70% in the October elections. “Next year we must win with more than 70%, that’s the challenge we have, I have a lot of confidence, confidence in our social movements,” the president said in December.
The Market and Sample surveys indicate that the average vote that the President could reach is 30%.
If something the MAS has to boast about, is its hard vote. Voters who do not leave Evo nor will leave him no matter what happens; that is one of the strongholds of the ruling party.
According to the analysis of Markets and Samples, the candidate of the MAS has a very favorable vote against Carlos Mesa, of the Citizen Community, and Oscar Ortiz of the Bolivian alliance Said No.
Morales has a very strong 18% hard vote and 11% hard vote more or less favorable, which makes 29%, very close to the figures handled by the strategists of the ruling party.
24% is considered neutral and it is the electorate that still needs to be convinced to vote for the re-election of Evo.
Carlos Mesa has a 13% hard vote very favorable and 16% more or less favorable, which makes 29%, as the candidate of the MAS, although it is evident that the former president fails to captivate the electorate and has Oscar Ortiz behind , the candidate of Bolivia Said No, who does not stop following the steps.
The opposition senator has a very favorable hard vote of 8% and 10% of hard vote more or less favorable.